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Insights into the transmission of respiratory infectious diseases through empirical human contact networks

机译:通过经验的人类接触网络了解呼吸道传染病的传播

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摘要

In this study, we present representative human contact networks among Chinese college students. Unlike schools in the US, human contacts within Chinese colleges are extremely clustered, partly due to the highly organized lifestyle of Chinese college students. Simulations of influenza spreading across real contact networks are in good accordance with real influenza records; however, epidemic simulations across idealized scale-free or small-world networks show considerable overestimation of disease prevalence, thus challenging the widely-applied idealized human contact models in epidemiology. Furthermore, the special contact pattern within Chinese colleges results in disease spreading patterns distinct from those of the US schools. Remarkably, class cancelation, though simple, shows a mitigating power equal to quarantine/vaccination applied on ~25% of college students, which quantitatively explains its success in Chinese colleges during the SARS period. Our findings greatly facilitate reliable prediction of epidemic prevalence, and thus should help establishing effective strategies for respiratory infectious diseases control.
机译:在这项研究中,我们提出了中国大学生之间具有代表性的人际交往网络。与美国的学校不同,中国大学内部的人际交往极为集中,部分原因是中国大学生的生活有条不紊。模拟流感在真实接触网络中的传播与真实流感记录完全一致;然而,在理想化的无标度或小世界网络中进行的流行病模拟显示,对疾病的流行率估计过高,从而对流行病学中广泛应用的理想化人类接触模型提出了挑战。此外,中国大学内部的特殊接触方式导致疾病传播方式不同于美国学校。值得注意的是,班级取消虽然简单,但却显示出与25%的大学生相同的隔离/预防接种能力,这从数量上解释了其在SARS期间在中国高校中的成功。我们的发现极大地促进了流行病流行的可靠预测,因此应有助于建立有效的控制呼吸道传染病的策略。

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