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Changes in the distribution of hydro-climatic extremes in a non-stationary framework

机译:非平稳框架内水文气候极端事件分布的变化

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摘要

Hydro-climatic extremes are influenced by climate change and climate variability associated to large-scale oscillations. Non-stationary frequency models integrate trends and climate variability by introducing covariates in the distribution parameters. These models often assume that the distribution function and shape of the distribution do not change. However, these assumptions are rarely verified in practice. We propose here an approach based on L-moment ratio diagrams to analyze changes in the distribution function and shape parameter of hydro-climate extremes. We found that important changes occur in the distribution of annual maximum streamflow and extreme temperatures. Eventual relations between the shapes of the distributions of extremes and climate indices are also identified. We provide an example of a non-stationary frequency model applied to flood flows. Results show that a model with a shape parameter dependent on climate indices in combination with a scale parameter dependent on time improves significantly the goodness-of-fit.
机译:水文极端气候受气候变化和与大规模振荡有关的气候多变性的影响。非平稳频率模型通过在分布参数中引入协变量来整合趋势和气候变异性。这些模型通常假定分布函数和分布形状不变。但是,这些假设在实践中很少得到验证。我们在此提出一种基于L矩比图的方法,以分析水文极端气候的分布函数和形状参数的变化。我们发现重要的变化发生在年度最大流量和极端温度的分布中。还确定了极端分布的形状与气候指数之间的最终关系。我们提供了一个应用于洪水流量的非平稳频率模型的示例。结果表明,具有依赖于气候指数的形状参数和依赖于时间的比例参数的模型显着提高了拟合优度。

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