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Elucidating Transmission Patterns From Internet Reports: Ebola and Middle East Respiratory Syndrome as Case Studies

机译:从互联网报告中阐明传播方式:以埃博拉病毒和中东呼吸综合征为例

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摘要

The paucity of traditional epidemiological data during epidemic emergencies calls for alternative data streams to characterize the key features of an outbreak, including the nature of risky exposures, the reproduction number, and transmission heterogeneities. We illustrate the potential of Internet data streams to improve preparedness and response in outbreak situations by drawing from recent work on the 2014–2015 Ebola epidemic in West Africa and the 2015 Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS) outbreak in South Korea. We show that Internet reports providing detailed accounts of epidemiological clusters are particularly useful to characterize time trends in the reproduction number. Moreover, exposure patterns based on Internet reports align with those derived from epidemiological surveillance data on MERS and Ebola, underscoring the importance of disease amplification in hospitals and during funeral rituals (associated with Ebola), prior to the implementation of control interventions. Finally, we discuss future developments needed to generalize Internet-based approaches to study transmission dynamics.
机译:在流行病紧急情况下,传统流行病学数据很少,因此需要备用数据流来表征爆发的关键特征,包括危险暴露的性质,繁殖数量和传播异质性。我们利用最近在2014-2015年西非埃博拉疫情和2015年在韩国爆发的中东呼吸综合症(MERS)的研究成果,说明了互联网数据流在爆发情况下改善准备和应对能力的潜力。我们表明,互联网报告提供了流行病学集群的详细说明,对于表征繁殖数量的时间趋势特别有用。此外,基于互联网报告的暴露方式与从MERS和埃博拉流行病学监测数据得出的暴露方式一致,强调了在实施控制干预措施之前,在医院和and葬仪式(与埃博拉相关)中扩大疾病的重要性。最后,我们讨论了推广基于Internet的方法来研究传输动力学所需的未来发展。

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