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Rapid decadal convective precipitation increase over Eurasia during the last three decades of the 20th century

机译:20世纪后三十年欧亚大陆的年代际对流降水迅速增加

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摘要

Convective precipitation—localized, short-lived, intense, and sometimes violent—is at the root of challenges associated with observation, simulation, and prediction of precipitation. The understanding of long-term changes in convective precipitation characteristics and their role in precipitation extremes and intensity over extratropical regions are imperative to future water resource management; however, they have been studied very little. We show that annual convective precipitation total has been increasing astonishingly fast, at a rate of 18.4%/°C, of which 16% is attributable to an increase in convective precipitation occurrence, and 2.4% is attributable to increased daily intensity based on the 35 years of two (combined) historical data sets of 3-hourly synoptic observations and daily precipitation. We also reveal that annual daily precipitation extreme has been increasing at a rate of about 7.4%/°C in convective events only. Concurrently, the overall increase in mean daily precipitation intensity is mostly due to increased convective precipitation, possibly at the expanse of nonconvective precipitation. As a result, transitional seasons are becoming more summer-like as convective becomes the dominant precipitation type that has accompanied higher daily extremes and intensity since the late 1980s. The data also demonstrate that increasing convective precipitation and daily extremes appear to be directly linearly associated with higher atmospheric water vapor accompanying a warming climate over northern Eurasia.
机译:对流降水(局部的,短暂的,强烈的,有时甚至是剧烈的)是与降水的观测,模拟和预测有关的挑战的根源。对流降水特征的长期变化及其在温带地区极端降水强度和强度中的作用的了解对于未来的水资源管理至关重要。但是,对它们的研究很少。我们发现,年平均对流降水量以18.4%/°C的速度惊人地快速增长,其中16%归因于对流降水的增加,而2.4%归因于日强度的增加(基于35) 3年的天气观测和日降水量的两个(组合)历史数据集的年数。我们还发现,仅在对流事件中,年日极端降水量一直以约7.4%/°C的速度增加。同时,平均日降水强度的总体增加主要是由于对流降水增加,可能是由于非对流降水扩大所致。结果,由于对流成为占主导地位的降水类型,因此过渡季节变得越来越像夏季,自1980年代末以来,伴随着更高的每日极端值和强度。数据还表明,随着欧亚大陆北部气候变暖,对流降水量的增加和日常极端事件似乎与大气水汽含量的增加呈线性关系。

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