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Applying the compound Poisson process model to the reporting of injury-related mortality rates

机译:将复合泊松过程模型应用于与伤害有关的死亡率的报告中

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摘要

Injury-related mortality rate estimates are often analyzed under the assumption that case counts follow a Poisson distribution. Certain types of injury incidents occasionally involve multiple fatalities, however, resulting in dependencies between cases that are not reflected in the simple Poisson model and which can affect even basic statistical analyses. This paper explores the compound Poisson process model as an alternative, emphasizing adjustments to some commonly used interval estimators for population-based rates and rate ratios. The adjusted estimators involve relatively simple closed-form computations, which in the absence of multiple-case incidents reduce to familiar estimators based on the simpler Poisson model. Summary data from the National Violent Death Reporting System are referenced in several examples demonstrating application of the proposed methodology.
机译:通常在假设病例数遵循泊松分布的假设下分析与伤害相关的死亡率估计值。某些类型的伤害事故有时会导致多人死亡,但是,这导致案件之间的依存关系没有在简单的泊松模型中反映出来,甚至可能影响基本的统计分析。本文探讨了复合泊松过程模型作为替代方法,强调了对基于人口的比率和比率的一些常用区间估计器的调整。调整后的估计量涉及相对简单的闭式计算,在没有多案例事件的情况下,可以简化为基于更简单的Poisson模型的熟悉的估计量。在一些示例中引用了国家暴力死亡报告系统的摘要数据,这些示例说明了所建议方法的应用。

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