DEVELOPING AN OPERATIONAL DECISION RULE FOR IDENTIFYING THE FATAL CASE DOCUMENTS AT RISK OF BEING RETURNED THROUGH MATHEMATICAL MODELLING

摘要

Incomplete or inaccurately filled fatal case documents are often returned to the hospital by higher headquarters, causing delay in the completion of procedural formalities. A mathematical model was developed to identify those fatal case documents which are at an increased risk of being returned so that the corrective action may be taken a priori. The data was subjected to a multiple logistic regression analysis. Diagnostic test characteristics were worked out and a Receiver Operating Curve analysis was done to find out optimum operating points on the slope, and the following mathematical rule was developed:7.06=1 (if age > 50 years) − 4.5 (if age <= 12 years) + 9.88 (if serving person) + 2.75 (if ex-serviceman) + 4.5 (if dependent son or daughter) + 6.38 (if time lag > 10 days).This rule carries a sensitivity of 53 per cent and specificity of 75 per cent.