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Poisson-Gamma Mixture Spatially Varying Coefficient Modeling of Small-Area Intestinal Parasites Infection

机译:小区域肠道寄生虫感染的泊松-伽玛混合物空间变异系数模型

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摘要

Understanding the spatially varying effects of demographic factors on the spatio-temporal variation of intestinal parasites infections is important for public health intervention and monitoring. This paper presents a hierarchical Bayesian spatially varying coefficient model to evaluate the effects demographic factors on intestinal parasites morbidities in Ghana. The modeling relied on morbidity data collected by the District Health Information Management Systems. We developed Poisson and Poisson-gamma spatially varying coefficient models. We used the demographic factors, unsafe drinking water, unsafe toilet, and unsafe liquid waste disposal as model covariates. The models were fitted using the integrated nested Laplace approximations (INLA). The overall risk of intestinal parasites infection was estimated to be 10.9 per 100 people with a wide spatial variation in the district-specific posterior risk estimates. Substantial spatial variation of increasing multiplicative effects of unsafe drinking water, unsafe toilet, and unsafe liquid waste disposal occurs on the variation of intestinal parasites risk. The structured residual spatial variation widely dominates the unstructured component, suggesting that the unaccounted-for risk factors are spatially continuous in nature. The study concludes that both the spatial distribution of the posterior risk and the associated exceedance probability maps are essential for monitoring and control of intestinal parasites.
机译:了解人口统计学因素对肠道寄生虫感染的时空变化的空间变化影响对于公共卫生干预和监测非常重要。本文提出了一个分级贝叶斯空间变化系数模型,以评估人口统计学因素对加纳肠道寄生虫发病率的影响。该模型依赖于地区卫生信息管理系统收集的发病率数据。我们开发了Poisson和Poisson-gamma空间变化系数模型。我们使用人口统计学因素,不安全的饮用水,不安全的厕所和不安全的液体废物处置作为模型协变量。使用集成的嵌套拉普拉斯近似(INLA)拟合模型。据估计,肠道寄生虫感染的总风险为每100人中10.9人,而各地区的后验风险估计存在很大的空间差异。不安全的饮用水,不安全的厕所和不安全的液体废物的成倍增加效应的显着空间变化是肠道寄生虫风险的变化。结构化的残余空间变化在非结构化成分中占主导地位,这表明未解释的风险因素在空间上是连续的。研究得出结论,后验风险的空间分布和相关的超标概率图对于监测和控制肠道寄生虫都是必不可少的。

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