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Exploring the Influence of Built Environment on Car Ownership and Use with a Spatial Multilevel Model: A Case Study of Changchun China

机译:利用空间多层次模型探讨建筑环境对汽车拥有和使用的影响:以中国长春市为例

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摘要

Although the impacts of built environment on car ownership and use have been extensively studied, limited evidence has been offered for the role of spatial effects in influencing the interaction between built environment and travel behavior. Ignoring the spatial effects may lead to misunderstanding the role of the built environment and providing inconsistent transportation policies. In response to this, we try to employ a two-step modeling approach to investigate the impacts of built environment on car ownership and use by combining multilevel Bayesian model and conditional autocorrelation (CAR) model to control for spatial autocorrelation. In the two-step model, the predicting car ownership status in the first-step model is used as a mediating variable in the second-step car use model. Taking Changchun as a case study, this paper identifies the presence of spatial effects in influencing the effects of built environment on car ownership and use. Meanwhile, the direct and cascading effects of built environment on car ownership and use are revealed. The results show that the spatial autocorrelation exists in influencing the interaction between built environment and car dependency. The results suggest that it is necessary for urban planners to pay attention to the spatial effects and make targeted policy according to local land use characteristics.
机译:尽管已经广泛研究了建筑环境对汽车拥有和使用的影响,但是对于空间效应在影响建筑环境与出行行为之间的相互作用方面所提供的证据有限。忽略空间影响可能导致误解建筑环境的作用并提供不一致的运输政策。针对这种情况,我们尝试通过结合多级贝叶斯模型和条件自相关(CAR)模型来控制空间自相关,采用两步建模方法来研究建筑环境对汽车拥有和使用的影响。在两步模型中,将第一步模型中的预测汽车拥有状态用作第二步汽车使用模型中的中介变量。以长春市为例,本文确定了空间影响因素影响建筑环境对汽车拥有和使用的影响。同时,揭示了建筑环境对汽车拥有和使用的直接和连锁效应。结果表明,空间自相关影响建筑环境与汽车依赖之间的相互作用。结果表明,城市规划者有必要注意空间效应,并根据当地土地利用特点制定有针对性的政策。

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