Risk of acute childhood leukaemia in Sweden after the Chernobyl reactor accident. Swedish Child Leukaemia Group.

摘要

OBJECTIVE--To evaluate the risk of acute childhood leukaemia in areas of Sweden contaminated after the Chernobyl reactor accident in April 1986. DESIGN--Population based study of childhood leukaemia diagnosed during 1980-92. SETTING--Coordinates for places of residence of all 1.6 million children aged 0-15 years; aerial mapped areas of Sweden heavily contaminated after the Chernobyl accident. SUBJECTS--888 children aged 0-15 years with acute leukaemia diagnosed in Sweden during 1980-92, identified with place of birth and residence at diagnosis. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES--Risk of leukaemia in areas contaminated after the Chernobyl accident compared with the rest of Sweden and in the same areas before the accident. RESULTS--During six and a half years of follow up after the accident the odds ratio for acute leukaemia was 0.9 (95% confidence interval 0.6 to 1.4) in highly contaminated areas (> or = 10 kBq/m2) compared with the same areas before the accident. For the subgroup acute lymphoblastic leukaemia in children aged under 5 years at diagnosis the odds ratio was 1.5 (0.8 to 2.6). For all cases diagnosed after May 1986 in highly contaminated areas compared with areas of low contamination the odds ratio was 0.9 (0.7 to 1.3). For acute lymphoblastic leukaemia in children aged under 5 years at diagnosis the odds ratio was 1.2 (0.8 to 1.9) in highly contaminated areas compared with areas of low contamination. Dose-response analysis showed no correlation between the degree of contamination and the incidence of childhood leukaemia. CONCLUSION--There has been no significant increase in the incidence of acute childhood leukaemia in areas of Sweden contaminated after the Chernobyl reactor accident.