提出一个实用的随机生产模拟方法，适用于包括抽水蓄能机组、新能源电源、外部系统送受电以及检修停运、日开夜停、投产退役、出力调整等复杂运行状况的模拟。通过时序负荷曲线与持续负荷曲线的结合，保留了模拟过程的时序信息，可实现按机组出力曲线进行随机生产模拟，将抽水蓄能机组、新能源电源等以更合理的方式纳入随机生产模拟体系中。为满足外部系统及抽水蓄能机组的处理要求，给出了机组负值出力时的卷积公式和从持续负荷曲线逆向转换为时序负荷曲线的方法。模拟结果可包含时序信息，更符合实际应用要求，并可进一步拓展其应用。讨论了水电机组、抽水蓄能机组、新能源电源及复杂运行状况的处理，给出了算例及应用实例，验证了方法的有效性和实用性。%The paper proposed a practical stochastic production simulation method which is suitable for the simulations including pumped storage units, new energy power sources, power delivery and receiving of ex-ternal systems and complex operating conditions such as maintenance service, switch-on at daytime and switch-off at night, retirement, adjustments of output power and so on. By combining chronological load curve with load duration curve, temporal information of simulation process is retained and the stochastic production simulation can be realized according to unit output power curve to put pumped storage units and new energy power sources into the simulation in a more reasonable way. To meet the simulation for external systems and pumped storage units, a convolution formula for negative power outputs of units is given, and the method of reverse transformation from sustained load curve to time-series load curve is given. Simulation results can in-clude temporal information and tallies more with the actual application requirements, and to further expand-ing their applications. The simulations of hydropower units, pumped storage units, new energy power sources and complex operating conditions of units are discussed. Study cases and an application example are given, and the effectiveness and practicability of the method was verified.
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