In this paper,the annual runoff series observed at four hydrological gauges of the Yellow River and the corresponding annual pre?cipitation series were chosen as studied data. Firstly,the Pettitt method was applied to detect the change?points in both annual precipitation and runoff,and it was found that the precipitation series of the Yellow River had no significant change?point,while the runoff series presented obvious downward change?points. Then,the proposed likelihood?based method was employed to detect the change?point of precipitation?runoff relationship. The results indicate that the precipitation?runoff relationship for the four hydrological gauges have significant change?points in the years of 1986 or 1990. Through the attribution analysis, temperature rise and intensive human activities should be the main factors altering the precipitation?runoff relationship of the Yellow River.%选取黄河干流上中下游4个水文站的年径流量以及相应的年降水量资料作为研究数据,首先应用Pettitt方法对各站点的年降水量和年径流量进行变点检验,结果表明黄河流域的降水量不存在显著的变点,而径流量均存在显著向下的跳跃点,然后采用基于似然函数理论的变点检验方法对降水—径流关系进行了变点检验.结果表明:4个站点对应的降水—径流关系均存在显著的变点,变点的位置均位于1986年或1990年.通过归因分析可知,气温上升与大规模人类活动是造成黄河流域降水—径流关系发生变异的主要原因.
展开▼
