新疆南疆三地州扶贫资金效益评价研究——基于变截距面板模型的实证

摘要

[Objective] This project aims to analyze the use efficiency of poverty alleviation funds of the three prefectures in southern Xinjiang in order to provide reference for adjustment of poverty alleviation policies direction and improvement of poverty alleviation molds.[Method] The quantitative analysis method of variable intercept panel model was used to study the influence of poverty alleviation funds on the indexes such as per capita income,the per capita output value of farmers and herdsmen,the rate of industrialization and urbanization,and at the same time,the regional transmission effects were also calculated.[Result] Every one yuan increase of per capita poverty alleviation fund increased the per capita income of farmers and herdsmen by 4.40 yuan,the industrialization rate by 0.023,6％,and the urbanization rate by 0.02％.In terms of the regional transmission of poverty alleviation funds,Hotan had a greater impact on Kashgar and Kezilsu Prefecture.[Conclusion] Poverty alleviation fund positive benefit is remarkable,which has obvious promoting effect on the per capita income of farmers and herdsmen,on industrialization rate and urbanization rate.However,urbanization is the biggest factor affecting the per capita income and the per capita output value of farmers and herdsmen,followed by the industrialization.Thus,poverty alleviation work of the three regions in southern Xinjiang must attach great importance to the role of urbanization and industrialization.%[目的]研究新疆南疆三地州扶贫资金使用效益,为调整扶贫政策和改进扶贫模式提供参考.[方法]收集相关文献、汇总和对比分析,采用变截距面板模型定量分析方法,研究扶贫资金对农牧民人均收入、农牧民人均产值、工业化率和城镇化率等指标的影响,并测算其地区间传导效应.[结果]人均扶贫资金每增加1元,能增加4.40元的农牧民人均收入、0.023 6％的工业化率和0.02％的城镇化率.扶贫资金的地区传导上,和田对喀什与克孜勒苏州相关系数较大.[结论]扶贫资金正向效益显著,对农牧民人均收入、工业化率和城镇化率都具有明显的促进作用.城镇化是对农牧民人均收入、农牧民人均产值等指标最大的影响因子,其次是工业化;南疆三地州扶贫工作必须重视城镇化与工业化的拉动作用.