内陆核电厂严重事故对水资源安全影响的评价方法研究

摘要

为研究内陆核电厂严重事故对水资源安全影响的评价方法,在分析内陆核电厂严重事故对水资源安全影响机理的基础上,从社会影响、经济影响、生态影响三个角度建立了适用于核电厂严重事故对水资源安全影响评价指标体系,提出了基于水资源使用功能和基于受影响的GDP的两种评价方法.以某内陆核电厂为典型案例,分析结果表明,该核电厂严重事故影响经济社会用水规模达6.1亿m3,影响GDP规模达373亿元,对水资源安全的影响属于严重影响等级,两种方法评价结果基本一致.该方法对核电厂严重事故影响评估、应对重大水安全风险具有一定参考价值.%In order to study the method for assessment made on the impact from serious accident of inland nuclear power plant on the safety of water resources,an index system suitable for the assessment is established from the aspects of social impact,economic impact and ecological impact on the basis of analyzing the mechanism of the impact from serious accident of inland nuclear power plant on the safety of water resources,and then two methods,viz.one is based on the use function of water resources and the another is based on the impacted GDP,are proposed herein.By taking an inland nuclear power plant as a typical case,the analysis result shows that the scale of the social and economic water use impacted by a serious accident of the plant reaches to 610 million m3,while the scale of the impact on GDP reaches to 37.3 billion yuan,thus the impacting level for the impact on the safety of water resources belongs to serious,for which the results from both the methods are basically coincided.The method has a certain reference value for assessing the impact from serious accident of nuclear power plant and dealing with major safety risk of water resources.