基于供应可用度的可修航材需求预测模型

摘要

根据航材需求差均比大于、等于或小于1三种情况,提出负二项分布、泊松分布和二项分布三种预测方法.以给定的总保障经费为约束条件,通过总短缺数最小代替供应可用度最大来简化目标函数,建立航材需求预测模型,采用边际分析法寻优并编写了算法.根据库存平衡公式,提出实际需要筹措的需求计算公式.算例证明本模型具有良好的准确性和实用性.%According to the three conditions that air materiel demand variance-to-mean ratio are larger than, equal to or less than 1, this paper put forward the negative binomial distribution, poisson distribution and binomial distribution three prediction methods.In the given total security funds as constraint conditions, through total shortage norm least instead of supply availability maximum to simplify the objective function, it established air materiel demand forecasting model, and optimized the marginal analysis and compile algorithm.According to the inventory balance formula, it put forward the Actual need raising demand calculation formula.The example proved that the model had good accuracy and practicality.