基于增长期权的煤层气开发项价值评估模型

摘要

Coal bed methane development project has a high degree of risk, but the traditional evaluation methods ignored the uncertainties in the development progress, and underestimated the value of CBM development project.Aimed to the risk of CBM development project, this paper considered a series of investment opportunities for the following projects (such as coal mining, energy investment, etc.) and introduced growth option theory to analyze the value of CBM development project.Then it established an assessment model of CBM development project value based on growth option with Black-Scholes option pricing formula.This model not only provides an effective method to avoid risk for CBM development company, but gives a new idea to evaluate the value of CBM project rationally.%煤层气开发项目具有高度的风险性,传统的项目评价方法忽略了开发过程中的不确定性,低估了煤层气开发项目的价值.针对煤层气开发项目的风险性,考虑到煤层气的开发将给煤炭开采、能源利用等一系列后续投资项目带来的投资机会,引入增长期权理论探讨了煤层气开发项目价值,并运用Black-Scholes期权定价公式,建立了基于增长期权的煤层气开发项目价值评估模型.该模型为煤层气开发企业有效地规避风险提供了解决方法,也为合理地评价煤层气开发项目价值提供了一种新的思路.