基于组合模型的用电量预测方法研究

摘要

Electricity is the guarantee of economic development, scientific and rational forecast for electricity consumption is precondition to arrange power production and power station construction. The article, based on the gray theory and time series forecasting model, establishes the combined model.It is proved that prediction accuracy of combined model has improved, compared with the single model in some extent, at last, this article conducts prediction by a combined model method for annual electricity consumption of Hunan Province from 2010 to 2015.%电力是经济发展的保障,对用电量进行科学合理的预测是安排电力生产、电站建设的前提.文章基于灰色和时间序列预测模型,建立组合模型,经验证,组合模型预测精度较单一预测模型有一定程度的提高,最后利用组合模型对湖南省2010-2015年用电量进行预测.