基于证据理论的洪湖湿地动态容量预测

摘要

针对生态旅游中动态容量影响因素的未知不确定性,提出了基于证据理论的洪湖湿地动态容量预测模型.该模型依据洪湖湿地生态旅游最大容量构建识别框架,以专家预测的各种不确定因素的影响程度和发生的概率为依据,建立基本可信度分配,利用Dempster合成法则融合各种动态因素对洪湖湿地生态动态容量的影响.实验数据分析表明,该模型运算结果可行有效,可为洪湖湿地生态旅游建设提供科学的决策支持.%By considering the uncertainty of influence factors to tourists of ecology, a new dynamic capacity prediction model of Honghu wetland is proposed based on the Dempster-Shafer theory of evidence. According to the max capacity, this paper analyzes Honghu wetland capacity model, designs a recognized frame, takea the probabilities of the influence factors predicted by experts as the basic probability of evidences. At last, the dempater fusion principles is used to get the probability of the Honghu's tourists prediction dynamic capacity. Experimental results prove the rationality and feasibility of the proposed mode.