基于CA的产业集群升级决策过程建模分析

摘要

Industry cluster upgrade is a complex process. Features of emergence of upgrading have gradually showed along with the evolution of industry cluster system. Hooland gives the emerging process limited generation process. In his book Emergence, emergent theory can predict many complex behaviors; at the same time, it gives us a lot of enlightenment about life, wisdom and organization. After the emergence incentive condition analysis and evolution game analysis, the result shows that the influence of structure effect, composition effect, scale effect and environment effect on upgrading emergence is obvious. We express the influence of factors on the upgrading process by using Cellular Automaton and the object-oriented JAVA language to realize the whole process to analyze the influence of different incentives to upgrade.%产业集群升级过程是一个复杂的过程，升级的涌现特性，随着产业集群系统的不断演化逐渐凸现。Hooland赋予了这个涌现过程成为：受限生成过程。在他的《涌现》一书中指明了，涌现的理论能够预言许多复杂的行为，同时也给予我们关于生命，智慧和组织的很多启示。升级过程经过在前面的涌现激励条件分析，企业之间的演化博弈分析之后，可以看出，结构效应，组成效应，规模效应，环境效应对于升级涌现的影响是显而易见的，那么其因素对于整个升级过程的影响程度如何表述出来呢？我们借助元胞自动机建模，并利用面向对象的JAVA语言实现整个过程的模拟实验，来分析，不同激励条件对于升级的影响。