基于Logistic曲线的我国私人汽车拥有量长期预测研究

摘要

文章以我国2000年到2012年私人汽车拥有量为历史数据，应用spss非线性回归功能建立我国私人汽车拥有量长期预测的logistic曲线模型，通过本文的论述可以得出，本文建立logistic曲线方程不仅能很好的对我国私人汽车拥有量进行长期预测，而且对我国汽车方面宏观管理政策的制定有一定的指导意义。%This paper is based the amount of private car ownership as the historical data from China's 2000 to 2012, applying the nonlinear regression function of spss to establish logistic model for long term prediction of private cars ownership, through this paper can be concluded, established logistic curve equation is not only good for long term prediction of private car ownership, but also good for making macro management policy of our country automobile aspect.