目的：应用趋势季节模型分析法总结门诊量的季节变动规律，并预测未来年度的门诊量，给领导制定工作计划提供决策依据。方法：选取近8年门诊人次资料，运用最小二乘法，计算各月季节比率，拟合直线趋势方程，剔除趋势，进行预测，得到荆州市中医医院2014年各季门诊量的预测值。结论：每年的实际门诊量季节性变动明显，医院应根据其特性合理安排医务人员的工作计划，有序的开展门诊接诊。方法选择上，趋势季节模型简便易行，预测效果理想，宜在基层医院推广使用。%Objective: to use trend season model analysis method to summarize the seasonal variation law of outpatient quantity and predict the outpatient quantity in the years to come, so as to provide decision basis for leader to make work plan. Method: to select the outpatient visitors information in the past 8 years and use least square method to calculate the seasonal indexes of each month. Fit linear trend equation, exclude tendency, and then make predictions to get the predicting value of the outpatient quantity of each season of Jingzhou Hospital of Traditional Chinese Medicine in 2014. Conclusion:the seasonal variation of outpatient visits is apparent, so the hospital should arrange the work plan of medical staff according to its features and accept patients orderly. The trend season model is simple and convenient, so it I suitable for grassroots hospitals.
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