粮食价格波动的季节性及其形成机理

摘要

Changing of grain price is concerned by millions of people and makes up problem of gain's safety. From an empirical point,we analyze seasonal pattern of China grain price. We also do seasonal adjustment by advanced statistical methods, such as X-13 etc. We summarize final seasonal factors and seasonal characteristic of grain price. We analyze its all probability influence factors. We point out which is significant influence factors among them and obtain its formation mechanism.%粮食价格的变化牵动着亿万人的心，也事关国家粮食的安全问题。本文从实证角度分析了我国粮食价格波动的季节性规律，利用X-13等先进统计方法进行了季节分解，得出它们的季节因子及其变化特征，并对影响粮食价格季节变化的国内外因素进行了综合分析，指出导致粮价季节性变化的显著因素和形成的机理。