The amount of funds involved in real estate projects is huge, and it is directly related to the profits and losses of enterprises. Therefore, it is particularly important to carry out risk analysis of real estate projects. More conventional approaches to risk analysis, such as sensitivity analysis, probability analysis, all take the prior probability as the basic data, but in the process of the project development, the influence on the prior probability is difficult to be estimated. Compared to these conventional methods, Bayes method for risk analysis, timely correction and adjustment, is a more effective risk analysis method. Therefore, the use of Bayes method for real estate project risk analysis, can draw more targeted conclusions, and this paper puts forward reasonable recommendations for investment decisions on real estate projects to make enterprises avoid risks and ensure the smooth operation of the project.%地产项目所涉及的资金量巨大,直接关系到企业盈亏,因此,对地产项目进行风险分析就显得尤为重要.相比于较常规的风险分析方法,比如,敏感性分析,概率分析,都是以先验概率为基础数据,但是,项目发展过程中所产生的变化因素对先验概率的影响却难以估计,运用贝叶斯方法进行风险分析,及时修正、调整,是一种更加行之有效的风险分析方法.因此,运用贝叶斯方法对地产项目进行风险分析,可得出更有针对性的结论,并对地产项目的投资决策提出合理的建议,为企业规避风险,确保项目顺利运行.
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