中国城市化与经济增长关系实证分析

摘要

利用中国1987-2008年的省际面板数据,结合联立方程和分布滞后模型,考察了中国城市化与经济增长之间的相互影响。研究发现：城市化与经济增长的相互促进作用在短期内存在;从累积效应来看,城市化对经济增长呈现显著的负面影响,同时经济增长对城市化也呈现显著的负面影响;从长期来看,中国的经济增长与城市化相互促进的良性循环机制并未形成。%This article incorporates distributionlag model into simultaneous equations to study the nexus of urbanization and economic growth by the use of panel data from Chi- nese provinces during the period 1987 -2008. The findings include that the mutual promoter relations between urbanization and economic growth are existent in the short term; that the cumulative effect of urbanization on economic growth is significantly negative, and vice versa; and that Chinese economic growth and urbanization have not formed a virtuous circle in the long term.