中国中长期煤炭需求预测

摘要

First ,this paper verifies the relationship between coal demand and economic growth. Then by introducing important factors such as industrialization and urbanization into the cointegration model ,it analyzes the impacts of economic growth ,industrialization ,urbanization ,coal price ,coal utilization efficiency and energy substitution effect on coal demand. Finally ,it forecasts the coal demand of China from 2012 to 2030 in three conditions of economic growth ,namely high ,medium and low rate. The results show as follows :China′s coal demand would be growing in next two decades ;the growth rate of coal demand under low economic growth rate is lower than that under medium or high growth rate ;Chi‐na′s coal demand would go through a period of rigid high growth in the process of industrialization and urbanization ;coal utilization efficiency , coal price and energy substitution effect have a certain of influences on coal demand .%首先对中国煤炭需求与经济增长的关系进行验证，然后将工业化水平、城市化率等变量纳入煤炭需求协整模型，分析了经济增长、工业化水平、城市化率、煤炭价格、煤炭利用效率和能源替代效应对煤炭需求的影响，并预测了在3种经济增长速度（高、中、低）下2012-2030年中国的煤炭需求。结果显示：未来20年期间中国煤炭需求仍将持续增长；经济低速增长下中国煤炭需求的增幅远低于经济高速或中速增长下的增幅；在城市化和工业化进程中，煤炭消费总量将经历刚性高增长阶段；煤炭利用效率、煤炭价格和能源替代效应对煤炭需求有一定影响。