利用改进的C‐D生产函数，估算了1978—2012年中国的电价扭曲程度。以电力强度为被解释变量，以电价扭曲程度、要素结构、城市化水平、产业结构等为解释变量，构建了协整模型，基于此对截至2020年中国电力强度的变化趋势进行了情景分析预测。研究结果表明：改革开放以来，中国电力能源价格发生了明显的负向扭曲，20世纪90年代初扭曲程度最大，此后整体上呈缓慢下降态势，但扭曲现象仍非常明显；电价扭曲程度每变化1％，中国电力强度同向波动约0.2155％，重工业发展对中国电力强度的刺激作用最强，推进城市化进程和优化产业结构可明显抑制中国的电力强度；2020年中国的电力强度将下降至约150千瓦时／千元。%Using the modified C‐D production function ,this paper estimates the distortion degree of electricity price in China from 1978 to 2012.And it builds the cointegration model in which electricity intensity as the explained variable ,and the distortion of electricity price ,factor structure ,urbanization and industrial structure as the explaining variable.On the basis of this model ,it forecasts the trend of electricity intensity in China up to 2020.The findings indicate as follows :China's electricity price is negatively distorted since reforming and opening ,and especially in the 1990s ,and since then the distortion degree declines as a whole ,but this problem still exists ;the change of distortion degree of electricity price by 1% will bring the change of China's electricity intensity with same direction by 0.2155% ;the stimulation from the development of heavy in‐dustry to electricity intensity is stronger than from other explaining variables ,and China's electricity intensity could be restrained by advancing urbanization process and optimizing industrial structure ;in 2020 ,China's electricity intensity will reduce to 150 kilowatt‐hour per thousand‐yuan .
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