基于证据推理的指挥自动化系统生存能力评估

摘要

Efficacy evaluation of C3I is a complex systems engineering. In order to evaluate survivability of C3I, this paper uses the accumulative role of evidence approach as a good tools in synthesizing experts opinions, and describes the main features of the evidential combination algorithm.The concept of survival credit is invoked and the process of survivability evaluation of C3I is established. The survival efficacy of an air defense in conflict circumstance is analysed by an example.%指挥自动化系统效能评估是一项复杂的系统工程。为了评估指挥自动化系统的生存能力，引入了证据推理方法，通过其证据聚合作用，为综合多个不同类型专家的意见提供了有力工具。论述了证据理论的数学性质及证据合成法则，提出了生存信度的概念和利用证据推理进行指挥自动化系统效能评估的方法，并应用证据推理方法对防空指挥自动化系统在对抗条件下的生存能力进行了实例分析。