针对传统故障树分析方法无法有效处理非精确失效概率的问题,提出了一种新的故障树区间分析方法.利用证据理论,由似真函数和信任函数获得底事件发生的区间概率.基于不确定变量的超椭球描述,构造了故障树区间算子,将底事件发生概率的不确定性传递到顶事件,并设计了求解条件极值的Monte-Carlo仿真算法,从而对故障树进行区间分析.该方法适用于统计数据缺乏或者难以得到实验数据的情况.理论分析和仿真实例表明,本方法合理可行,较好地反映了工程实际情况.%In order to process inexact failure probability efficiently, a novel interval analysis method of fault trees is proposed. The plausibility function and belief function in evidence theory are used to calculate the interval probability of basic events. A hyper-ellipsoidal model is introduced to structure the interval operators, by which the uncertainty propagation is implemented, and the Monte-Carlo simulation method is used to calculate conditional extremum. The proposed method can be applied when statistical data are incomplete. The good performance of the proposed method is demonstrated by theoretical analysis and numerical results.
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