基于证据理论的多任务抢修重要度决策

摘要

To solve weight decision of multi-mission recovery for a variety of informations, uncertain description,incomplete transmission and little historical record, an index system and decision model of weight decision based on Dempster Shafer theory are put forward. Various types of quantitative and qualitative decision information are transla ted into basic probability assignment in the same framework. According to each weight of information, basic weight effective values are assorted and integrated layer by layer through Dempster-Shafer theory. And a quantitative method based on non empty information is given. Simulation results show the effectiveness of the approach.%针对多任务抢修重要度决策中信息类型多样、描述不确定、传递不完整、历史无记录的现象,建立了基于证据推理的重要度决策指标体系和决策模型.将不同类型定性和定量决策信息通过相应的方法转换为同一框架下的基本信度效用值,然后根据各决策信息的重要度,通过证据理论合成方法对各因素基本信度效用值进行分类逐层合成,并根据决策信息中非空信息数量提出了重要度决策的量化方法.仿真算例验证了该方法的有效性.