基于两阶段维纳退化过程的液力耦合器可靠性评估

摘要

Reliability modeling and evaluation for the liquid coupling device (LCD)degradation process are studied.There are two phases in the LCD degradation process.That is to say,there is a change-point in the degradation of LCD,and the LCD follows different degradation processes before and after the change-point.Ac-cording to the traditional method,the reliability analysis focuses only on the second phase,which ighores the in-formation of the first phase.In view of this,the two-stage Wiener degradation process model is established,and the reliability function is deduced.The change-point between the two phases is obtained based on the Schwarz information criterion (SIC).Finally,the method is applied to evaluate the reliability of LCD and compared with the traditional method.The results show that the two-phase Wiener degradation model can depict the LCD deg-radation process effectively,and the more believable evaluation result is gained by the proposed method.%对液力耦合器（liquid coupling device，LCD）的两阶段退化过程进行可靠性建模及评估。液力耦合器退化过程中呈现出明显的两阶段特性，即 LCD 在退化过程中存在某一时刻，在该时刻前后，LCD 分别服从不同的退化过程。传统做法只基于第二阶段进行可靠性分析，丢失了第一阶段的信息。鉴于此，建立两阶段维纳退化过程模型，并推导出该模型下的可靠度函数；同时，基于 Schwarz 信息准则（Schwarz information criterion，SIC），获得模型变点的估计。最后，运用所建模型对 LCD 实例进行可靠性评估，并与传统做法进行对比分析。结果表明该模型对 LCD 退化过程拟合效果良好，且给出更为可信的评估结果。