复杂装备研制项目进度规划 GERT 网络“反问题”模型

摘要

In the complex equipment development project,it is very difficult to manage the project schedule planning since the complexities and uncertainty characteristics occur throughout the development process.The development process of complex equipment is viewed as a whole system consisting of a series of landmark events based on the idea of the system theory.Firstly,a graphic evaluation and review technique (GERT)network model is designed to describe the complex equipment development project,then the complex equipment develop-ment project completion time GERT network “inverse problem”solving algorithm is discussed.Finally,a model is used to solve the expected completion time based on a certain aircraft development project,the result of the ex-ample shows the validity of the model.%在复杂装备研制项目中，由于其研制过程中的多种复杂性和不确定性特征使得对项目的进度规划管理非常困难。文章基于系统论的思想，把复杂装备的研制过程看作是由一系列标志性事件组成的整体系统，定义了复杂装备研制项目的图示评审技术（graphic evaluation and review technique，GERT）网络模型，讨论了复杂装备研制项目完成时间的 GERT 网络“反问题”求解思路。以某飞机研制项目为例，对其期望完成时间进行了规划。