多枚导弹区域覆盖平行搜索的捕捉概率研究

摘要

针对反舰导弹对目标散布区搜索问题，提出一种多弹区域覆盖平行搜索方法，建立了目标捕捉概率的解析模型，并分析了参数变化对捕捉概率的影响，给出区域覆盖平行搜索下捕捉概率的统计模拟模型用于与解析法进行对比分析，得到了区域覆盖射击平行搜索的基本实施方法。仿真结果表明，相比于传统的单枚导弹现在点射击法，所提出的方法显著提高了反舰导弹对目标散布区的捕捉概率，解析法所得的捕捉概率近似为目标航向航速均服从均匀分布时捕捉概率的统计平均值，即在一般情况下使用该解析模型计算多弹区域覆盖平行搜索的捕捉概率是有效的。%To solve the problem of searching the target distribution area by anti-ship missiles,an area cov-ering parallel search method by means of multiple missiles is proposed.The analytic model is developed,and the impact on the acquiring probability is analyzed through changing each parameter.Meanwhile,a statistical simu-lation model of the method is presented for comparison and analysis.And a concrete plan of the area covering parallel search method is given.The results show that the provided area covering parallel search method has a much higher acquiring probability than the traditional one.And it is valid to calculate the acquiring probability by adopting the analytic model for the fact that the acquiring probability calculated by the analytic model approa-ches the mean value of statistical simulation when the course and speed both follow the even distribution.