个体的观点不确定性对群体观点多元化的影响

摘要

用社会群体中个体的微观特性，来研究群体的宏观规律，是提升社会观点演化研究科学化水平的重要手段。然而，目前对个体的观点不确定性与群体观点多元化涌现之间关系的探索还不够深入。在有界信任模型的基础上，通过区分观点不确定性的范围和程度，构建了“有界信任”与“部分观点坚定”共同作用的模型，研究了个体的观点不确定性对群体形成多元化观点的影响。通过调整个体的观点不确定性，考察单个个体、同质群体和异质群体的观点演化效果，用仿真计算实验揭示了个体的观点不确定性的范围和程度对群体形成观点多样性的影响机制和特点；通过对社会群体的分析，建立了个体的观点不确定性与观点的依赖关系，考察了3种典型初始观点分布条件下的群体观点演化，发现观点呈现出类似均匀分布或正态分布时容易形成群体观点多元化，而呈现出“极端子群体”分布时难以形成观点多元化。仿真计算实验从一定程度上揭示了社会群体观点演化的规律。%The relationship between individual’s uncertainty and pluralism of the social group’s opinion, which is of great importance in understanding the social opinion evolution process as well as the macroscopic-law of social groups shaping from individual microscopic-characteristics,is still not known very clearly.Thus,the effect of individual-uncertainty on the emergence of social pluralism is evaluated by quantifying the scope and de-gree of individual-uncertainty,and establishing the part persistence model combined with bounded confidence based on the framework of the Hegselmann-Krause model.By adjusting the extent of individual-uncertainty, the simulation analyses that are applied to the single-subject,homogeneous-group,and heterogeneous-group levels,quantitatively and comprehensively reveal that the pluralism of the group-opinion is significantly modula-ted by the scope and degree of individual-uncertainty.Furthermore,by assessing the dependence of individual-uncertainty on individual-opinion in social groups,the evolution of group-opinion is investigated under the three classical distributions of initial individual-opinions.The simulation results indicat that the pluralism of group-o-pinion is prone to be formulated when the individual-opinion is in uniformormal distribution,whereas it would be infrequently to formulate the group-opinion pluralism to the individual-opinion in extreme distribution.All these results together demonstrate the basic rule of the social group-opinion evolution.