考虑双重预期的云模型决策

摘要

A method based on the prospect theory is proposed to solve the multiple attribute decision making problem in which the attributes are given by the cloud model and target aspiration and growth aspiration are considered.Target aspiration and growth aspiration are denoted first, the similarity measurement method is established for the attribute value and the dual aspirations which are given by the cloud model.The future value function is defined based on the cumulative prospect theory and cloud model similarity, and the weight optimization model is established based on the maximum comprehensive prospect value difference among the alternatives.The example illustrates the application and feasibility of the proposed method.%针对指标值为云模型且考虑目标预期和增长预期的多属性决策问题,提出了一种基于前景理论的决策方法.提出了增长预期和目标预期的刻画方法,针对以云模型形式给出的属性评价值和双预期值建立了相似性度量方法,根据累积前景理论和云模型相似度定义了综合前景价值函数,最后根据方案之间的综合前景值总体差异最大化为目标建立权重寻优模型;案例说明了方法应用步骤和可行性.