蒙特卡洛法在滑坡稳定性可靠度分析中的应用

摘要

Through analyzing the problems of landslide stability analysis,considering uncertain factors of landslide mass,this paper analyzes the uncertainty of various parameters affecting landslide stability quantitatively from the perspective of probability to obtain the uncertainty of slope stability.Finally,it uses Monte Carlo method to obtain the probability of landslide failure in different conditions based on an example.The result verifies that this method is reasonable and feasible.%通过分析滑坡稳定性分析中存在的问题,考虑滑坡岩土体的不确定因素,从概率的角度对影响滑坡稳定的各种参数的不确定性进行定量分析,从而得到坡体稳定的不确定性。采用蒙特卡洛法针对一工程实例进行了计算分析,得到了在不同工况下滑坡失稳的概率值,计算结果验证了方法的合理性和可行性。