基于时间序列分析法的软土路基沉降预测研究

摘要

采用时间序列分析法,根据已有的路基沉降观测数据,建立模型,预测路基沉降的发展趋势.实例分析表明:利用该分析法预测路基沉降,不仅能避开软土路基复杂的力学性质,还可避开利用传统的路基沉降计算方法所用到的大量参数,而且建模比较简单,所得最终预测结果误差较小.%Time series analysis method is adopted to establish model according to existing subgrade settlement observation data to predict the development trend of subgrade settlement.The case analysis shows predicting the subgrade settlement by the method can not only help to avoid the complex mechanical properties of soft soil subgrade,but also avoid a large number of parameters from traditional calculation method of subgrade settlement.Besides,the modeling is relatively simple,and the final prediction deviation is quite small.