人口数目估计中的独立双系统估计量研究

摘要

利用存在统计相依关系的两份人口登记名单构造的非独立双系统估计量是目前估计总体实际人口数的前沿方法。该估计量由最初用于估计一个区域内的野生动物数目的捕获－再捕获模型移植而来。非独立双系统估计量的一个明显缺陷是低估总体实际人口数。用独立双系统估计量替代非独立双系统估计量属于人口数目估计领域的理论创新研究。采用数理分析与实证分析相结合的方法研究独立双系统估计量及其方差估计量。为便于读者理解，通过一个实证案例全面演示了独立双系统估计量的计算过程。研究表明，独立双系统估计量所估计的人口数平均接近于实际人口数，建议在未来人口数目估计中应用独立双系统估计量。%Non‐independent dual system estimator which is constructed by two population registration lists with existing statistical dependence is frontier approach of the actual number estimation of overall population .This estimator is from capture‐recapture model which is firstly used to estimate the number of wild animals in one given area .Non‐independent dual system estimator has a obvious defectwhich underestimates the true number of the population .It is theoretical innovation in the field of population number estimationthat independent dual system estimator is used to instead of non‐independent dual system estimator .Independent dual system estimator and its variance estimator are studied by means of combining mathematical analysis and empirical analysis .Calculation process of independent dual system estimator is demonstrated through an empirical case in order to facilitate readers to understand and master it .The results show that the estimated population number by the independent dual estimatoris close to the true number of the population on average .Suggestion is using independent dual system estimator to estimate population number in the future .