中国城市入境旅游的经济增长效应及空间溢出性

摘要

Based on panel data of 285 cities in China from 2004 to 2013 , the paper comparatively analyzes economic grow th effect of inbound tourism and its spillover effect before and after the financial crisis ,and explores the temporal and spatial evolution of the economic grow th effect of inbound tourism using spatial Durbin model and geographically weighted regression model .The study find that :inbound tourism has spatial interaction and show s positive interaction ,and the process of spatial agglomeration of economic growth is not an isolated system ;After the financial crisis ,the contribution of inbound tourism to economic grow th and its spillover effect not only decrease but also increase ;Local spatial analysis also find that the overall promoting role of inbound tourism to economic growth have increased .For spatial distribution ,the regions of the inhibitory effect no significant effect of inbound tourism to economic grow th is shrinking , however the regions with promoting role show agglomeration development and continue to spread to neighboring regions .%基于2004—2013年中国285个城市面板数据，运用空间杜宾模型和地理加权回归模型，以金融危机发生时间为断点，对比分析金融危机发生前后入境旅游的经济增长效应和空间溢出效应，探究入境旅游经济增长效应的时空演变趋势。研究发现：入境旅游存在空间交互作用，表现为正向交互性，城市经济增长的空间集聚过程并不是孤立的系统；金融危机发生后，入境旅游对经济增长的促进作用强度及空间溢出效应不仅没有下降，反而有所增加。空间局部分析还发现，从整体上看，城市入境旅游对经济增长的促进作用有所提高；空间分布上，城市入境旅游对经济增长产生抑制作用和无显著作用的地区在空间上不断缩小，而产生促进作用的地区呈现集聚发展，并不断向邻近地区扩散。