基于模糊评价方法的航天器总装过程产品安全性评估模型研究

摘要

航天器在总装阶段发生的质量安全问题将会对航天器研制质量、进度、成本产生重大的影响。为提高航天器产品总装的安全风险控制能力，必须建立总装过程风险识别和安全防护的工程方法，对总装过程重要环节的安全性进行正确评价。通过运用模糊综合评价法与层次分析法构建航天器总装安全性评估模型，在专家打分的基础上，借助多级模糊综合判断和直接打分相接合的方法，分析确定各评价指标的权重，从而计算出关键活动的风险值。%The quality and the safety in spacecraft AIT stage have an unpredictable impact on the quality, the schedule, and the cost of the spacecraft development process. So an engineering method of risk identification and prevention to evaluate the safety of key processes in AIT is needed in order to improve the safety risk control ability for spacecraft. In this paper, we use the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation and analytic hierarchy method to construct a spacecraft assembly safety evaluation model. Based on the expert scoring, combining with the multilevel fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method and the direct scoring method, the weights of each evaluation index are analyzed and determined. After calculation, the risk value of the key activities for the spacecraft assembly process is obtained.