基于PRA的交会对接任务可靠性评估

摘要

为有效评估交会对接任务过程的可靠性指标,提出了基于概率风险评价（PRA）的交会对接任务可靠性评估方法,该方法是通过事件树描述各事件或功能的可靠性与任务可靠性之间的关系,同时通过概率风险模型描述事件或功能的可靠性与设备可靠性之间的关系。根据我国航天领域可靠性工作现状,提出了交会对接过程可靠性评估的工程流程。%Based on probabilistic risk assessment（PRA） model,a reliability assessment approach is proposed to solve the quantitative assessment of rendezvous and docking mission.In this approach,event tree analysis（ETA） is used to describe the relation between base events（or functions） reliability and the whole mission reliability,and PRA model is used to describe the relation between equipment reliability and a base event（or function）reliability.According to the Chinese practical situation,a reliability assessment application diagram of space rendezvous and docking processes is presented.