子女数量对我国流动女性劳动参与的影响——基于M型与倒U型劳动参与曲线的分析

摘要

The analysis of the data of dynamic monitoring survey of the Floating Population 2011-2014 finds that the labor supply curve of female migrants exhibit M-shape by age, while those female migrants with childbearing experience exhibit inverted U-shape by age.The analysis based on LPM and instrumental variable regression show that the more children have negative effects on labor force participation rate of female migrants, and raising children force the youthfully female migrants to drop out of the labor market.However the increase of children number has little significance to the non-agricultural female migrants while it significantly reduce the labor force participation rate of agricultural female migrants, which can be weakened by family economic support.Agricultural migrant' s children number has a marginal decrease effect on labor force participation rate, but the childbearing after the second child has little significant influence on agricultural migrant' s labor force participation rate.The findings may have some implications the reproductive equality under the implementation of the two-children policy.%本文利用2011-2014年流动人口动态监测数据,发现我国流动女性劳动参与曲线随年龄呈M型,而有生育经历的随年龄呈倒U型.基于LPM与工具变量回归,认为子女数量对流动女性劳动参与有负面影响,生养孩子使年轻流动女性更易退出劳动力市场;子女数量递增对非农流动女性劳动参与没有显著影响,但会使农业流动女性的劳动参与概率显著降低,这一作用因家庭经济支撑需要有所弱化;农业流动女性的劳动参与存在子女数量的边际递减效应,二孩之后继续生育对其劳动参与没有显著影响.本文分析结论对全面二孩政策实施下全社会共享生育公平有一定参考作用.