职工工资、养老金替代率与养老保险基金支出*--基于因素分析法的分解分析

摘要

This paper uses statistical decomposition technology-the method of factor analysis,the related data in 2008-2012 to analyze the quantitative relationship between the expenditure of staff wages,pension replacement rate and the funds of endowment insurance based on the empirical analysis. The conclusion shows that wage growth has the biggest impact on spending of the endowment insurance fund,insurance effect taking second place pension replacement effect taking third place and in the opposite direction of change. This paper advises constructing the decomposition index system pension expenditure based on factor analysis method,and taking it as the main basis for the formulation of relevant policies.%本文运用因素分析法，基于2008-2012年相关数据对职工工资、养老金替代率与养老保险基金支出之间的定量关系进行实证分析。结论显示，工资增长对养老保险基金支出的影响最大，参保效应次之，养老金替代效应最小且呈反方向变动。建议基于因素分析方法构建“养老保险基金支出分解指数体系”，并作为制定相关政策的主要依据。