对我国当前宏观经济形势的思考

摘要

Since 2012, China's economic growth is facing greater downward pressure. Correctly understand and grasp the current economic situation, the new changes in the economic development needs to be on the medium-and long-term economic trends analysis. Recent years, the economic situation changes, and macroeconomic policy direction of short-period adjustment reflects the difficult choices of policy between the three important regulatory goals of growth, structure and price. Deeper level, which is essentially that China's economic development has had a phase of rapid expansion of the scale, must move away from the traditional path dependence, taking a new road to industrialization. Now, the long-term problems of the economic transformation is manifested cycle fluctuations in short-term phenomenon, that short-term macroeconomic contradiction between supply and demand changes and the direction of the transformation of the macro-economic control, in fact reflect the stage of China's economic development and the development of way of being, and must undergo significant changes.%2012年以来,我国经济增长面临较大下行压力。正确认识和把握当前经济形势,需要将经济发展的新变化放到中长期经济发展趋势中分析。近年来的经济形势变化以及宏观政策方向的短周期调整反映了政策在增长、结构和物价3个重要调控目标之间的困难选择。从更深层次看,这实质上表明我国经济发展已经度过了规模快速扩张的阶段,必须摆脱传统路径依赖,走新型工业化道路。现在,经济转型的长期性问题正以周期波动的短期性现象表现出来,即短期内宏观经济总供求矛盾的变化和相应的宏观政策调控方向的变换,实际上反映的是我国经济发展阶段和发展方式正在和必须发生重大变化。