提升东北亚城市科技创新能力的因素探讨——基于结构化方程模型的路径分析

摘要

This article selects 2009-2010 annual data,and constructs the index system of technology innovation in Northeast Asia,based on cluster analysis and discriminant analysis,we divide the 155 cities of Northeast Asia into four categories, then through structural equation, we discuss the factors including governance, cultural and economic environment which affect technology innovation and probe the conduction path between government management, economic environment and cultural environment. The result shows that the economic environment is the direct impact of the most important factor in technological innovation (0. 666) ,and the existence of scientific and technological innovation has direct and indirect role in the path; government management effects innovation though both economic and cultural environment relatively, the cultural environment has weakest impact on innovation,reveals only 0. 07. Finally,we give some policy recommendations.%选取2009-2010年东北亚155个城市作为研究样本,构造了东北亚城市科技创新能力评估指标体系；基于聚类分析、判别分析方法,将东北亚155个城市划分为四大类,在此基础上,通过结构化方程模型(SEM),对影响东北亚城市科技创新能力的政府管理、文化环境和经济环境三大要素进行了探讨,并对路径传导及要素间的相互作用进行了研究,最后提出了计算科技创新能力的两种方法.研究结果显示,经济环境是影响科技创新能力最主要的直接因素(0.666),并且对科技创新能力存在直接和间接两条作用路径,而政府管理通过经济环境和文化环境的间接传导来影响科技创新能力；相对而言,文化环境对科技创新能力的影响较弱,仅为0.07.最后,提出了几点政策建议.