重庆市两江新区产业布局与劳动力聚合效应研究

摘要

比较分析了两江新区和滨海新区的功能区及产业布局,利用就业弹性系数模型对未来10年两江新区产业发展所需的劳动就业数量进行了预测.主要结论是:二、三产业的增长对劳动力就业产生了较强的聚合效应,第一产业产值的增加一定程度上对就业增长产生了“挤出”效应.未来10年,两江新区将聚合劳动力137～142万人.据此,提出了两江新区的产业布局思路,以及发展、促进就业的政策建议.%The paper analyses the functional areas and the industry layout of the Two Rives Area and the Binhai New Area. It predicts the employment figure of Two Rivers Area in the next ten years, using the employment elasticity model. The main conclusion is that the second and third industry had a strong aggregation effect on employment.. To some extent,the first industry-increase has extrusion effect on employment. In the next decade,Two Rivers Area will demand the amount of labor between 1. 37tol. 42 million people. According to the this, this paper proposes some policy recommendations to promote industrial layout and employment of the Two Rivers Area.