基于系统动力学方法的技术创新扩散模型构建及仿真研究

摘要

在对技术创新扩散系统结构进行分析的基础上，采用系统动力学方法构建技术创新扩散系统的因果关系模型，提炼其中重要反馈回路并对其极性进行分析。构建技术创新扩散系统流图，应用 Vensim PL E软件对流图模型进行检验，并对模型进行结构灵敏度和参数灵敏度仿真分析。仿真结果表明：三阶段扩散模型相对于传统的两阶段扩散模型，具有一定延迟特征，这种延迟特征降低了技术创新扩散的平均速率。此外，各参数对技术创新扩散结果的影响并非简单线性关系，而是呈现出复杂的非线性，具有反直观特征。研究结果进一步丰富了技术创新扩散理论的研究内容及方法，并为促进技术创新扩散提供了理论参考和决策支持。%T his paper firstly analyzes the structure of technology innovation diffusion ,then establishes the causal model of technology innovation diffusion system based on system dynamics ,analyzes its important feedback loops and polarity .On basis of this ,this paper establishes the flow model of technology innovation diffusion system ,and simulates the process with the help of Vensim PLE software .The results show that this model we established is effective and feasible can be used in the actual application ,can provide theoretical reference and decision support for government departments and deci‐sion makers in promoting technology innovation diffusion .