中国制造业产业政策实施有效性评价

摘要

产业政策是市场经济国家普遍采用的一种公共调节政策,产业政策有效性评价是检验政策实施效果的基本途径.在合理构建制造业产业政策绩效评价指标体系的基础上,运用灰色关联神经网络智能算法对2005-2014年各指标数据进行预测,再利用差值对比法对2005-2014年中国制造业产业政策作用效力进行综合评价.分别从产业结构、组织、科技、布局角度实证分析了制造业在转型升级过程中产业政策实施绩效水平及其演进阶段性特征,可为今后制定合理的制造业产业政策提供科学的理论依据.%Industrial policy is a kind of public regulation policy that adopted widely in market economy,and industrial policy effectiveness evaluation is a basic method utilized to examine the effects of policy implementation.On the basis of constructing performance evaluation index system for the manufacturing of industrial policy,the thesis applied grey correlation neural network intelligent algorithm to predict the index data from 2005 to 2014.Then the contrast difference method was used to make a comprehensive evaluation on effectiveness of China's manufacturing industry policy from 2005 to 2014.The evaluation was divided respectively from the point of industrial structure,organization,science and technology in the manufacturing industry policy to analysis the performance levels and the stage evolution characteristics on the process of transformation and upgrading.The result provides scientific theory basis and reasonable proposals for manufacturing industry policy.