Industry transfer is the inevitable trend of economic development.The new normal of economic development in China demands the upgrading of its industrial structure and elimination of ill-balanced regional economic development.Yet the traditional industry transfer theory tends to adopt partial data and methodologies from reductionism, thus cannot meet the requirements of researches on the highly non-linear systematic problems like the mechanism and evolution routines of regional industry transfer.In this paper, input-output data were adopted to establish industrial complex network, aiming at reflecting sectors' influence and vulnerability on value chain Then, analyses on industry transfer paths of modern manufactures were carried out based on link prediction, and there were three ways suitable for collaborative development of Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei according to simulation results, which were optimal configuration, industry convergence and capacity elimination.%产业转移是经济发展到一定程度的必然趋势.在我国经济新常态下,提出了通过产业转移提升产业结构、消除区域间经济发展不平衡的命题.传统产业转移理论主要利用局部数据和还原论研究方法,而区域产业转移机理和路径研究具有高度非线性系统特征,因而适用性不佳.因此,基于投入-产出数据构建区域产业复杂网络,利用网络特征值反映产业部门在价值链上的影响力和脆弱性,并根据链路预测理论对京津冀地区现代制造业产业转移路径进行分析.仿真结果表明,适合京津冀协同发展的产业转移路径包括优化配置路径、产业融合路径和产能淘汰路径.
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