为了把握颠覆性技术识别与预测方法研究进展,首先对颠覆性的内涵、特征和运行机制进行论述;然后,通过对已有文献进行系统梳理,将识别与预测方法分为5类,分别展开详述;最后,对各类方法进行比较分析.研究发现,已有颠覆性技术识别与预测方法仍处于发展的初期阶段,所有识别研究方法均围绕颠覆性技术的外部影响或内在特征中的某一方面展开,并未将二者有机结合起来.未来,应综合把握颠覆性技术内外部特征,构建全面、系统的识别与预测框架.%In order to grasp the progress of subversion technology identification prediction method, Firstly, the connota-tion, characteristics and operation mechanism of disruptive technologies are discussed.The existing methods of identifica-tion and prediction are divided into five categories, and the detailed analysis is carried out respectively.Finally, the meth-ods are compared and analyzed.The study found that the methods of identification and forecating are still in the early stage of development, all the methods are around external or internal characteristics of the disruptive technologies, but not the organic combination of the two stand up.In the future, researchers should grasp the internal and external characteristics of disruptive technologies and construct a comprehensive system of identification and forecasting framework and indicators.
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