湖北省建设国家可持续发展议程创新示范区SD 模型研究

摘要

国家可持续发展议程创新示范区建设是各地社会经济发展的重要战略.以科技创新与社会发展相融合、科技创新带动经济发展为目标,根据《2030年可持续发展议程》要点,结合湖北特色禀赋和现实需求,运用系统动力学方法,构建创新示范区建设战略的SD模型,预测湖北省创建议程创新示范区核心指标演进趋势,并进行系统仿真模拟.结果表明:在预测期内,湖北省GDP、水资源总量和基础设施承载能力将保持较好的发展趋势,但高新技术贡献率、水环境保护、科技人力资源增长相对缓慢.对照预测分析,从科技人力资源和高新技术产业贡献、水资源环境保护、基础设施承载能力建设等方面提出对策建议.%The construction of the national sustainable agenda innovation demonstration area is an important strategy for the economic and social development of all parts of the country.With the integration of scientific and technological innovation and social progress,scientific and technological innovation promotes economic development as the main theme,and com-bines the characteristics of Hubei and the needs of reality.Using the system dynamics method,the construction strategy SD model of the agenda innovation demonstration area is constructed.According to the 2030 agenda for sustainable devel-opment,predict the development trend of core indicators of Hubei province to create an agenda innovation demonstration area,and carry out systematic simulation.The empirical analysis shows that GDP and infrastructure carrying capacity maintain a good development trend,but the contribution rate of high-tech,water environment protection,and technology human resources all increase slowly.According to the results of the model,proposed to strengthen the protection of water environment and promote sustainable development of water conservancy.Transform the advantage of science and education into the advantage of innovation and development.Improving the conversion rate of scientific and technological achieve-ments.