基于区间值模糊影响图的风险分析方法研究

摘要

The fuzzy influence diagram is a new method for risk analysis and evaluation. Aimed at the situation that the membership function is in great uncertainty which is ignored in the fuzzy set during the existing research, thi paper proposes the interval - valued fuzzy influence diagram method. It introduces the composition of the interval - valued fuzzy relationship and the interval - valued ranking on the index of attitude to get the finial probability distribution of the value -node so as to achieve the magnitude of the risk about the enterprise or projects. Finally the feasibility and effectiveness of the method are verified through a simple example.%模糊影响图方法是一种用于风险评价和分析的新方法.针对现有研究忽略了模糊集合下评价对象的状态隶属度难以用数值精确化的现状,提出了基于区间值的模糊影响图方法,将区间值的模糊关系合成运算法则和基于心态指标的区间值排序方法引入,得到最终价值结点的概率分布情况,从而达到确定项目或者企业风险大小的目的.并通过一个简单的算例说明了方法的可行性、有效性.